SpaceX IPO Monitor — Alphalytics

NasdaqIdle

Awaiting cross

IPO

HyperliquidIdle

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Kraken xStocksIdle

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Milestones

S-1 Filed·—Offer Price Set·—Roadshow Begins·—Book Close / Pricing·—First Trading Day·—

Markets

—SPCX · USDC

Markets

Normalized % change from session start

Nasdaq

Hyperliquid

Kraken xStocks

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SpaceX (SPCX) IPO — gross float, index absorption, net tradable float and illustrative price

Visualization only · not a forecast

Sharp pop · Low float + heavy buying drives an early run-up.

Pullback on major unlocks · First large tranche expands supply; price moderates.

Peak on index momentum · Mechanical index/ETF buying absorbs supply near term.

Stabilizes as float reaches ~30% · Effective tradable float normalizes; price stabilizes.

Filings

Space Exploration Technologies · CIK 0001181412

Filings

Estimated passive flow recalculates from the live price

CRSP US Total MarketAnnounced
Effective Jul 6, 2026
Est. flow $1.4B≈ 10M shares
FTSE Global All CapAnnounced
Effective Jul 20, 2026
Est. flow $630M≈ 4.7M shares
Nasdaq-100Eligible
Effective Aug 21, 2026
Est. flow $1.9B≈ 14.3M shares
S&P 500Not eligible
TBD — est. next rebalance · Requires positive GAAP earnings (sum of trailing four quarters) — typically not met at IPO.
Russell 1000Eligible
Effective Jun 26, 2027 · Annual reconstitution; next effective late June.
Est. flow $1.4B≈ 10.7M shares
MSCI USAEligible
Effective Nov 25, 2026
Est. flow $770M≈ 5.7M shares

SpaceX · SPCX · IPO

Signal

X / Twitter highlights

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